Kleykamp in Taiwan --
" Live Long and Prosper "

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News of Kleykamp's Classes Fall 2011
You can get very high frequency data on US commerce from
the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse Index.  The index uses data from
trucking diesel stations all over the US and thus a decrease
in the index indicates weakness in shipping and hence the
economy. Very up-to-date on Main Street rather than Wall
Street data.  Currently we are in a flat stage, but no
recession according to the index.

The Ceridian Index for September dropped 1% -- more than anytime in the past
except during recession.  Professor Leamer believes that the US economy has
softened considerably.  Other indicators do not point to a recession, but this
trucking data does show that we are headed for recession. In addition, the weekly
data shows a declining trend which is not good. You can see in the above chart
that the index is moving down quickly. You can watch the Leamer report at this
link.